Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely split population where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or activists want to engage with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. Both writes two articles that seek objectivity in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions encompass identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the concept that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they support unification but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government should establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid perspectives, he said. "One side will succeed here and somebody will eventually not succeed but both parties has got valuable insights to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
