Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: optimistic declarations are released from multiple capitals. Immense energy is devoted on containing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from across the border, a capability provided through up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been scrambled to intercept incoming guided weapons roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: defensive missiles fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably supplied through allied countries. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly gives way to grim resignation: possibly the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from devastation and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a heavy machine gun engaged a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a defensive team – probably imported technology. Sadly, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its target.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, destruction and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a dependence that European nations are evidently unprepared to replace in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from American leadership provoked deep reactions, discussion and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.
Every new approach from American administration unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, no doubt, continue.
Tactical Assessments
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration functions according to a principle familiar among international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration presumes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the land that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does minimal to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from believing that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its favour in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing people and territory but avoiding a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to terminate the proposed articles of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new plans based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on continued Western support.
